The US midterm elections are being held on 3 November 2026. They will decide control of the House of Representatives and the Senate. They also include the election of state governors and members of state legislatures, according to BBC News Arabic.
President Donald Trump is not on the ballot. However, the results could determine his ability to pass his agenda in the last two years of his term, while Democrats seek to win back the majority in Congress, according to the same source.
The House of Representatives has 435 members, and all of its seats are up for election every two years. Republicans currently hold 218 seats, compared with 214 for Democrats. One independent member, who usually votes with Republicans, holds a seat, and two seats are vacant.
The Senate has 100 members, and about one third of them are elected every two years. Republicans hold 53 seats, compared with 47 for Democrats. Democrats need four seats to reach a majority.
If Democrats win the House, their leader in the chamber, Hakeem Jeffries, is the most likely candidate to become Speaker. He would then become the first American of African descent to hold the post, according to BBC.
Jeffries said Democrats would scrutinise what he described as “unprecedented levels of corruption” in the Trump administration. He added that his party would focus on lowering the costs of healthcare, food, housing and energy.
By contrast, if Republicans keep their majority, the Speaker’s post remains in their hands, held by Mike Johnson or another Republican if he faces a challenge. According to BBC, Republican priorities are likely to focus on tax cuts, higher defence spending and reduced social safety nets.
In opinion polls reported by BBC, a poll by PBS News, NPR and Marist, conducted on 14 and 15 September, showed Democrats leading Republicans among registered voters by 53% to 41%. The gap among independents was 57% to 32%.
A Reuters/Ipsos poll from September 2026 showed approval of Trump’s job performance at 31% in one poll, while other polls recorded between 32% and 41%. An NBC News poll found that 55% of registered voters said Trump’s policies had harmed the economy, compared with 26% who said they had helped it.
On spending, AdImpact expects advertising spending in the 2025-2026 cycle to reach about $11.6 billion. This would exceed the previous midterm record of $8.9 billion, set in 2022. Cainetic Political Insights puts the figure at about $11.96 billion.
Political advertising spending reached $3.8 billion as of 12 October, according to AdImpact data. A large share of it is concentrated in closely contested Senate races in Texas, Ohio and Michigan. Campaign finance records also show that Elon Musk spent about $366 million to support Republicans.
Historically, Republicans gained 63 additional seats in the House in the 2010 elections. Former US President Barack Obama described that wave as a “crushing defeat”. In 2018, Democrats won 40 House seats while losing two seats in the Senate.